Technical & Macro Breakdowns
OnlineGold.org provides independent gold market analysis focusing on technical levels, macro drivers, and central bank policy impacts. Our research combines traditional technical analysis with fundamental macro insights to help investors navigate the gold market.
We publish new analysis weekly, with special reports on major market events. All analysis is data-driven and free from dealer affiliations or product promotions.
Technical structure supporting the $6,000 macro target. We examine Fibonacci extension levels at 161.8% ($5,875) and 200% ($6,245), volume profile analysis showing major resistance at $5,500-5,600, and weekly moving average alignment. Critical invalidation level sits at $4,800 - a breakdown would shift focus to $4,450 support.
Record sovereign demand is reshaping gold's supply-demand dynamics. Analysis of 2025's 1,237 tonnes of central bank purchases, led by China, India, and Turkey. De-dollarization thesis accelerating with BRICS+ expansion. This structural demand creates a price floor around $4,500-4,600 where sovereign buyers become aggressive.
Weekly candle analysis with key support at $4,875 (38.2% retracement) and resistance at $4,985 (previous week high). RSI at 58 showing room to run, MACD histogram turning positive. Next Fibonacci extension target at $5,237 (127.2%). Volume profile shows acceptance above $4,900.
Historical analysis shows -0.82 correlation between DXY and gold over past 5 years. With Fed expected to cut 100-125bps in 2026 while ECB stays hawkish, dollar weakness could drive gold above $5,500. Each 1-point drop in DXY historically adds $35-40 to gold price. Current DXY at 102.45 targets 98-100 range.
Markets price 92% probability of March 19 rate cut. Historical analysis shows gold rallies average 2.3% in week following first Fed cut of cycle. Key levels to watch: break above $5,000 on dovish Fed, support at $4,850 if Fed disappoints. Real yields expected to fall from 2.15% to 1.8%, historically bullish for gold.
GDX/Gold ratio at multi-year lows despite gold near highs. Historical analysis suggests miners offer 2-3x leverage to gold moves once trend confirmed. Examining Newmont, Barrick, and mid-tier miners. Key catalyst: Q4 earnings showing margin expansion above $4,800 gold. Technical setup suggests explosive move if GDX breaks above $38.
Unusual options activity in GLD June $520 calls (equivalent to $5,650 gold). Large block trades totaling $47M premium suggest institutional positioning for breakout. Put/call ratio at 0.45 showing extreme bullishness. Max pain analysis points to gradual rise toward $5,200 by March expiry.
Despite CPI cooling to 2.4%, gold maintains strength due to sticky service inflation and wage growth. Analysis of gold's correlation with 5-year breakeven inflation rates. Real rates remain key driver - gold outperforms when real yields below 2%. Comparison with TIPS, commodities, and Bitcoin as inflation hedges.